Roland Nash thinks…..

roland nash headshot
You want the straight scoop on Russia? Here it is, direct from Moscow. Roland Nash, Chief Strategist at Renaissance Capital, has written an opinion piece for Prime-Tass news service titled, The Kremlin shifts gears in 2007. The piece by Nash may be a little too “inside baseball” for some of you but due to the wave of silly Cold War rhetoric coming from the West I felt it illuminating for you to hear from someone who lives and works in Moscow. Roland Nash definitely has his finger on the pulse of Russian capitalism and has been involved in some of the larger deals in the past decade. You would do well to listen to his opinions closely.
Here are the first couple paragraphs of Nash’s piece:

MOSCOW, Feb 19 (Prime-Tass) — For a regime facing its final year in power, Putin’s Kremlin has been remarkably active so far in 2007. The reshuffle in the Kremlin power system late last week was a major shift in itself. As significant, though, was the context in which the changes were made.

Whatever one thinks of the aims and impact, the range and ambition of both domestic and foreign policy in recent weeks is striking. Domestically, a USD189 bn 10 year overhaul of the military has been signed off by government; two new pro-Kremlin parties are being promoted; the four government financed National Projects have been started; state monopolies from UES to Sberbank are embarking on major investment projects; new charges have been made against Mikhail Khodorkovsky; the rouble has been made euro-clearable; and changes to the tax system have been mooted. Less overtly, changes in ownership at Norilsk Nickel, movement in management at Alrosa, rumours swirling around Surgutneftegas and bureaucratic pressure on BP all suggest another round of asset ownership redistribution. And internationally, the activity has been, if anything, even more pronounced. Rarely has a political leader of a significant state sent such a strong message in a public forum as that which was sent by Putin in Munich last weekend. From Davos to Delhi, the three big guns of the Administration, Putin, Sergey Ivanov and Dmitri Medvedev, have been on a mission to push Russian foreign policy.

It seems unlikely that the timing of the shift in power was coincidental. Set in the context of the recent spate of domestic and foreign policy activity, it seems that the Kremlin is setting itself up to utilize Putin’s popularity and the centralized power structure built over the last seven years to push forward aggressively with the Kremlin’s agenda - both official and unofficial - in the final year of Putin’s constitutional presidency.

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